MBS Live Morning: Bonds Surprisingly Resilient With Help From Europe

In yesterday's overnight session, European bonds were the key driver of US bond market weakness.  Now in today's overnight session, they've had the opposite effect, ushering 10yr yields a few bps lower by the start of domestic trading.  Markets also have an eye on omicron-related news, the Treasury auction cycle, tomorrow's CPI data, next week's Fed announcement, and technicals.

In general, bonds have had their eye on the stock market during the recent wave of omicron-related news.  There was a high degree of correlation up until this week.  European bond market volatility has driven a noticeable departure.

This is actually fairly reassuring to see on a week with Treasury auctions, corporate debt issuance, and the closer proximity to next week's Fed announcement.  In other words, bonds could make a case for looking more nervous than they currently are.  Perhaps there's some underlying message of resilience there.  In terms of technicals, we can use the 1.537 level as an overhead ceiling to gauge the supportive sentiment.  Not pictured is an intermediate pivot point at 1.47%.  Breaking below that would be a bullish accomplishment today, but ultimately, this is just a temporary, sideways range without a sustained break below 1.376%