MBS Live Morning: Bonds Bouncing Back After Early Weakness

The overnight session was mostly uneventful for the bond market, but trading levels were slightly weaker in the first hour of trading.  Since then, buyers have shown up.  Most of the gains have coincided with weaker stocks at the 9:30am NYSE open.

In the bigger picture, this keeps yields safely below the 1.71 technical level and it reinforces yesterday's bounce at 1.65.  There is an internal trendline (upper yellow line in the chart below) with the same slope as the broader uptrend (lower yellow line).  Yields are encountering resistance at that upper line so far this morning.  If it's broken, the next key test would be at 1.54%.

Today's bonus chart is a snapshot of covid hot spots and a weather map with low temperatures from 2 weeks ago.  Correlation is not causality, but it's something to keep an eye on as winter progresses.