MBS Live Morning: Bonds Biding Time; Price Data Clarifies New Conforming Loan Limits

At the start of the trading session, Treasuries have the distinction of trading through the overnight hours with the lowest volume and volatility in more than a month.  That's either a coincidence, or the first major sign that bonds are settling into a sideways, narrow, consolidation pattern ahead of next week's much-anticipated Fed announcement.  With 3 days of Treasury auctions and a few important pieces of data on tap, we'll avoid jumping to that conclusion just yet though. 

Perhaps more interesting--even if it's not a market mover--is this morning's 1.0% increase in the FHFA home price index as it accounts for the 2nd to last month of data required to arrive at the new conforming loan limits one month from today.  While the headline HPI differs slightly from the expanded seasonally adjusted data set that drives the loan limit calculation, it's close enough to safely conclude the $625k level has been surpassed.  In fact, we'd be closer to $633k assuming last year's correlation with a final number near $640k if September's prices increased at 1.0% as well.