MBS Live Morning: Indecision Setting In

Headlines like "Indecision Setting In" have ironically been seen at the start of some days that ended up being big movers, so apologies in advance if that move happens to be toward higher rates today. Still, the overall assessment stands.  We're at a bit of a crossroads.  Traders are well-acquainted with the case for higher rates--so much so that one must wonder how much of that case has already been priced in to today's trading levels. 

This could also leave bond bears vulnerable to a pain trade (i.e. short squeeze), but that's not a sustainable source of momentum.  For that, we remain dependent on the usual suspects: covid numbers, econ data, Fed policy, and fiscal policy.  If those factors aren't clearly pushing yields up to test 2021's highs or back down into the Q3 range (the later part, roughly 1.25-1.38), we're just waiting for them to pick a play and go with it.

To be clear, the stars would need to align in a fairly economically negative way to get back into that range.  A short squeeze alone isn't capable of producing quite that much movement.  The more pressing technical battle is taking place as yields attempt to move below the 1.53% floor.