Mortgage Rates Flat to Start The Week

Mortgage rates were fairly flat to start the new week.  This leaves the average lender in the high 2% range for top tier conventional 30yr fixed  scenarios (i.e. 20%+ equity, 740+ FICO, owner-occupied, single-family, detached homes).  This is just a bit higher than the all-time lows seen at the beginning of the year when rates were in the mid-2% range.

There's disagreement about where we go from here.  The easy answer--and probably the more common one--is that rates will gradually move higher as we continue to distance ourselves from the worst days of the pandemic.  But that answer actually implies its own counterpoint: a lot depends on covid!  Specifically, if the delta-driven case count spike doesn't quietly subside, and more importantly, if cases accelerate into the fall months, rates could remain in this all-time low territory.  Moreover, if covid ends up translating to new, measurable economic damage, rates could even re-challenge previous lows.

These scenarios would take months to play out.  In the shorter term, there's a lot of focus on next week's Fed announcement.  Investors remain hungry for clues about when and how the Fed will begin winding down its rate-friendly bond buying programs.