MBS Live Day Ahead: Logical Sell-Off, But Refreshing Resilience After Strong Jobs Report

NFP printed at 943k vs a median forecast of 870k.  The previous month was revised up by 88k as well.  Unemployment ticked down to 5.4% vs a 5.7% forecast and 5.9% previously.  All this despite higher earnings and higher hours in the work-week (which both translate to even more potential jobs gains).  The labor market is threatening to hit the Fed's line in the sand for "substantial further progress" if next month puts on a similar show.  Bonds reacted like you'd expect.  Support kicked in a bit earlier than you you might expect.  If it holds through the close, it would be a nice consolation.

As far as support levels are concerned, 1.29% is the yield to watch today.  It's the top of the range over the past 3 weeks, and it saw some action as a resistance level in the 2 weeks before that.

Horizontal pivot points aside, we can also approach the current trends in a more diagonal way using the trend channel that's appeared on many a recent commentary post.  When we do that, we see a clear breakout after this morning's NFP.  This would be a negative signal for many market watchers who'd been following this trend and waiting for such a breakout.

Here are a few bonus charts with perspective on the jobs gains.