MBS Live Day Ahead: Overseas Markets Help Bonds Take Strong Stance

After having gained so much over the past 4 months (not to mention the removal of the adverse market fee), and with a Fed announcement due out tomorrow afternoon, it wouldn't have been a surprise to see bonds take a more defensive stance overnight and this morning.  Instead, 10yr yields are trying to fight through the 1.25% technical level (and they're largely winning) thanks to big weakness in Chinese equities and a strong bond market response in Europe.

In the bigger picture, rising covid case counts continue to correlate quite well with the recent bond rally.  The following chart shows a 7 day centered moving average of case counts (which is like a micro-seasonal adjustment for variations in reporting/testing between different days of the week).

Today's key event in terms of volatility potential (at least when it comes to scheduled calendar events) will the afternoon's 5yr Treasury auction.  Apart from that, we could see additional volatility that's NOT tied to any of today's events as traders take their positions (or close them) ahead of tomorrow's Fed announcement.