MBS Live Day Ahead: The Day is Young, But Strong NFP Isn't Killing Bonds

While the headline for nonfarm payrolls (850k vs 700k f'cast) seems like cause for concern at first glance, the bond market is digesting it well so far today.  Internal components may be helping to offset the headline (unemployment up 0.2%, workweek down 0.2 hours, wages missed by 0.1 and were revised down 0.1 for last month).  Bonds have traded both sides of 'unchanged' post payrolls.  That could continue to be the case as the day progresses.  Even if yields move back to their AM highs of 1.46%, that would still be a strong showing in the face of a strong NFP headline.

For now, they've been spending more time at slightly STRONGER levels, if you can believe that.  Stocks are also stronger, which adds to the notion that markets are viewing this installment of the jobs data as "not enough" to force the Fed to accelerate its baseline tapering/rate-hike outlooks.

Now for the challenge of the day: see if you can spot the moment NFP hit based on the reaction in stocks, bonds, and bond volume.  Subtle, no?