MBS Live Week Ahead: Holding a Narrower Range as Jobs Report Approaches

This week brings good potential for volatility as Friday represents the confluence of several individual events that are normally worth some volatility on their own.  The jobs report, the start of trading for a new month, the last day of trading before a 3-day weekend, and perhaps even a breakout from the recently narrow range in the bond market (1.44-1.53% 10yr yield).

As far as that range is concerned, it received some reinforcement this morning as yields bounced back down after moving up to the range ceiling on Friday.  In general, the ceiling is weaker than the floor in this case as 1.53 doesn't have a recent track record of supportive bounces in the same way that 1.44 has offered resistance bounces.  If these boundaries can remain intact by Friday, it increases the potential for a breakout following the jobs report.