MBS Live Day Ahead: Bonds Threaten to Run The Range

The new, holiday-shortened week begins with a good amount of weakness versus Friday's latest levels.  Nonetheless, yields are right in the middle of their recent range (1.55-1.70% in 10yr terms).  It was the 1.55% that serves as resistance last Wednesday.  The risk is that a simple in-range correction could take us back to test the 1.70% ceiling.

While these sorts of technical ebbs and flows have been fairly consistent since mid-March, they're by no means a guarantee of the path ahead.  The nature of the post-covid domestic economy--something that we're only in the early stages of discovering this summer--will soon play an important enough role to warrant more scrutiny.  We'll only really know for sure when we see markets clearly reacting to big-ticket economic data.  

With that in mind, Friday's jobs report offers a better chance to see such a reaction than any other data, even if it's still probably way too early for traders to glean any conclusive messages.  As several Fed speakers alluded to last week, the jobs picture will become significantly clearer at the start of the next school year.