MBS Live Day Ahead: Looking Past Thursday's Labor Market Data (in Favor of Friday's)

Thursday kicked off with several potential bond market threats.  Asian markets fired up again after a week of holidays.  The influx of volume could easily have tipped the scales but bonds stayed steady.  The Bank of England tapered its bond buying program, which sounds scary at first, but was widely expected.  Most recently this morning's labor market reports were both quite a bit stronger than expected.  If bonds don't seem too flustered by any of the above, it's because focus remains centered on tomorrow's big jobs report.

In terms of levels, yields continue to operate in a very interesting range despite relatively muted volatility.  The range coincides with the late January to early February range seen at the start of the pandemic.  It's as if bonds are in the process of deciding whether or not they're ready to move up and out of the post-pandemic range or remain inside.  Tomorrow's jobs report could cast a big vote on the decision, if it's significantly stronger or weaker than expected.