MBS Live Day Ahead: Time to Replace Optimism With Caution Until Further Notice

Bonds started the day quite a bit weaker after several pieces of EU econ data came in much stronger than expected.  Domestic data hasn't done anything to add to the pain, but overnight losses are more than enough to extend this week's unfriendly trend.  With 10yr yields over 1.65% after having hit 1.53% twice in the past 2 weeks, we're forced to wonder if we've already seen the floor of the springtime intermission. 

There are two ways to view the intermission: as a shorter, friendlier trend that exists only in the month of April or as a longer-term sideways trend.  Both options are still on the table, as friendly April trend would still be a part of a bigger-picture sideways trend.

Either way, this week's losses are making a strong case for the end of the April trend.  When we zoom in to an hour-by-hour candlestick chart, we see evidence of technical breaks (of ceilings) and bounces (at floors) that act to confirm the negative momentum.  Most recently, between yesterday afternoon and this morning, bonds are effectively bouncing at the 1.62% technical level as a floor.

Time to replace optimism with caution until further notice.