MBS Live Day Ahead: Quiet Calendar Leaves Focus on Europe and Technicals

When the most recent leg of US bond market weakness began in February, US 10yr yields were around 1.1% and German Bund yields (effectively the "EU 10yr") were at -0.44%.  Fast forward 2 months and EU yields are only up about 20bps compared to a surge of more than 60bps in the US.  Reasons include differences in vaccinations, case counts, economic rebounds, and debt issuance. 

The European Central Bank has also been friendlier than the Fed, saying it would temporarily increase its bond buying in response to rising yields in recent months.  This Thursday, it might say something else.  The ECB will release its new policy statement early Thursday morning and ECB President Lagarde will give a press conference 45 minutes later.  Even if there is no official change to the ECB's bond buying plans, Lagarde could indicate as much during the press conference.  With EU yields pushing up against a technical ceiling, any new weakness runs the risk of being accelerated by technicals.

Speaking of technicals, US yields are starting the week back above the 1.585% technical level after attempting to break out last week.  In fact, they're already close to the 1.62% level, which had been a tough floor to break over the past 2 weeks.  Moving back into this range reinforces the more "sideways" nature of the current consolidation pattern.  That's not to say yields couldn't take a run at 1.50, just that it may require some fundamental motivation (i.e. weaker data, covid drama, lower Treasury issuance outlook, etc.)..