Super Sideways Ahead of Retail Sales

Retail Sales used to be a big ticket report, but like so many others, has been punching well below its weight post-covid.  That will change at some point.  We could see vague hints of that change as early as tomorrow.  Either way, those mere hints would be more exciting than anything that happened today.  

Econ Data / Events

  • Fed MBS Buying 10am, 1130am, 1pm

  • Import Prices 1.2 vs 1.0 f'cast
    Export Prices 2.1 vs 1.0 f'cast

Market Movement Recap
08:31 AM

Calm, quiet overnight session.  Minimal movement in Treasuries.  Modest weakness.  10yr yields up 1.2bps at 1.632 and UMBS are perfectly unchanged.

12:13 PM

Modest additional weakness for Treasuries, mostly dragged higher in yield by sharper weakness in European bonds.  Technicals and corporate issuance are also factors.  10yr up 2.3bps at 1.643.  MBS outperforming, and holding onto nearly unchanged levels.

02:44 PM

Still treading water heading into the 3pm CME close.  10yr yields haven't gone any higher than they were before noon.  MBS are flirting with lows, but are only down 1 tick on the day currently (-0.03).