MBS Live Day Ahead: As Feared, Bond Sellers Say "Game On"

As of Monday, bonds had closed at higher yields for 8 straight days.  Such streaks beg for a correction.  They rarely last longer.  The correction became "official" on Wednesday with a decent 10yr Treasury auction helping to confirm.  But even on that same day, we warned that the gains were underwhelming at that these sorts of obvious corrections often happen in the sort of 2-day bursts seen on Tue/Wed.  Sure enough, yesterday was red day for bonds and risks rapidly increased that bond sellers would be saying "game on" again.

In addition to the Wayne's World scene, the chart above shows a zoomed-in section of the prevailing uptrend (yellow parallel lines containing almost all 10yr movement since August 2020).  The most basic implication of the "game on" trading is simply a return to the upper boundary of the trend channel.  It's possible we bounce before getting that high, however.  Today's weakness could be exacerbated by the impending 3 day weekend.  That's not an endorsement of complacency or a float recommendation, mind you, just a reservation of judgment until traders are back from their ski trips.