MBS Live Day Ahead: Decision Time For Bonds as Holiday Weekend Approaches

For the most part, this week has been "so far, so good" through Wednesday.  Yields have pushed back nicely after topping out at the highest levels in almost a year on Monday.  Such moves can either be a simple profit-taking measure for traders betting on higher rates or a bonafide reversal in a rising rate trend.  We're hoping for the latter, at least when it concerns the short-term trend that carried 10yr yields from 1.0% to 1.19% in the past 2 weeks. 

The days leading up to a 3-day weekend can be a poor reflection of prevailing bond market sentiment.  Trading is already getting quiet with Asian markets closed for Lunar New Year and very little by way of econ data on the domestic calendar. 

Long story short, we may now be waiting on next week to confirm this week's friendly bounce in rates.  If 10yr yields can trade below 1.125% in any convincing way before then, that would be a promising development.  Breaking much above 1.17% would send the opposite message.