MBS Live Day Ahead: Friendly Bond Bounce Continues as 10s Target 1.0%

With 10yr yields breaking the 1.075% technical floor on Monday, the bond market added evidence to the case for a move back to 1.0%.  Today's early gains make the evidence nearly overwhelming with yields less than half a basis point away at times.  With the Fed coming up this afternoon, it would only take a mildly stronger reaction to break the 1.0% floor. 

What happens after a break below 1.0% though?  The prevailing trend implies heavier resistance around 0.97-0.98%. Specifically, the lower boundary of the "trend channel" (yellow lines below) runs through .98 today.  It would require another fairly decent bond rally to get there, but it's not outside the realm of possibility.

Such a move could be a blessing or a curse.  If the trend keeps doing what it's been doing since August, a move to .97/.98 suggests a stronger possibility of another bounce, or at least another slow grind higher like the trading seen in Q4.

The Fed announcement comes out at 2pm and Powell's press conference begins at 2:30pm.  As far as the Fed's current stance is concerned, we're more likely to see/hear market movers in the press conference, if at all.  Markets want reassurance (again!) that the Fed isn't even talking about tapering its asset purchases yet.