MBS Live Day Ahead: Bonds Should Give Their Next Technical Signal Any Day Now

The nature of the pandemic has made for some very mechanical and orderly market movement.  The best example of this in the bond market is the "trend channel" (parallel lines marking the highs and lows, yellow lines in today's chart) we've been following in 10yr yields since the beginning of November. 

Smaller scale examples include several consolidation patterns (converging lines marking highs and lows, teal lines in today's chart), just like the one that's been taking shape over the past 2 weeks.  This one's a bit different than the last two. 

On a negative note, this consolidation pattern is occurring at much higher yields, but on a plus note, it's also resting near the top of the aforementioned trend channel.  The implication is that IF we can manage to get a friendly break, it means there's a better-than-average chance of some positive follow-through.

The other interesting thing about consolidation patterns is that, due to the converging lines, yields will be forced to break out of the pattern by the time the lines cross.  Yesterday morning's weakness took yields right to the bleeding edge of a negative breakout, but the ensuing rally kept the  channel intact.  Now we may not see a breakout until next week.

There aren't any great market movers on tap today in terms of scheduled data.  The Existing Home Sales report at 10am is relevant to the industry though.  Forecasts call for a slight decline but to levels that are still stellar in the bigger picture.