MBS Live Week Ahead: This Week Could See The Biggest Momentum Shift in Months

The presidential election happened 2 months ago and since then, bonds really haven't moved other than in response to the Pfizer vaccine news on Nov 9th and stimulus news on Dec 1st.  Both of those sell-offs took 10yr yields to similar ceilings.  Both were under 1.00%.  It's entirely possible (if not probable!) that the key motivation for remaining so sideways during that time is that the Georgia senate run-off elections are still TBD.  At stake: the balance of power in the US government. 

Full control by one political party is something the bond market typically cares very deeply about (as seen in late 2016 when the election precipitated the biggest month of bond market losses since 2003).

Later this week (Wed night, at the earliest), markets will finally learn whether or not democrats will control the senate.  To be clear, this isn't about democrats or republicans.  It's about control.  When one party has control, it's much easier for the government to spend money or cut taxes (which is just a different way of the government spending money as it has to pay more to subsidize a revenue shortfall).  Either way, Treasuries are issued to foot the bill.  Excess Treasury issuance means higher yields and upward pressure on mortgage rates.

Covid is still a consideration.  The longer it takes for vaccines to roll out and the more economic damage sustained in the near term, the better for rates.  On the other hand, if the economy is muddling through the winter months without too much drama and if vaccine production looks more promising, we could be staring down a very big double whammy for rates.