Bond Market Weakness Introduce Risk of In-Range Bounce

Bonds were weaker overnight following European economic data and traded sideways for the entirety of the domestic session.  The weakness introduces a small risk that yields are bouncing on the lower end of their current trend channel (a series of lower highs and lower lows leading back from the yield spike after Nov 9th's vaccine news).  This is really only a small-scale, short-term consideration unless things get a lot worse, however.  Even if that happens, there's still a chance it could be chalked up to inconsistent trading patterns that occasionally show up for this particular holiday week.

Econ Data / Events
Market Movement Recap
09:11 AM

EU bonds led Treasury yields higher overnight and those losses remain intact this AM despite a slide in EU equities.  Vaccine headlines have been cited by others, but EU PMI data looks more relevant.  No major market movers domestically (so far).  10yr yields up 2.6bps at .85%.  MBS are down an eighth of a point.

10:17 AM

Stocks gained a bit more ground and bonds lost a bit more ground after stronger Markit PMI data at 9:45am.  Stocks have since reversed back to previous levels while bonds have held near their weakest levels of the day.  MBS are down 1 more tick (0.03) for a total of 5 on the day (-0.16) and 10yr yields are up 3bps at .854.

12:42 PM

Stocks moved to their lows of the day and bonds found their footing in the 11am hour.  None of the moves have been big.  MBS are back to being down an eighth and 10yr is back at .85% (so that's less than half a bp of movement since the last update).  5yr Treasury auction coming up in 15 minutes (possible, but by no means guaranteed market mover).