MBS Live Day Ahead: Bonds Turn Green in a Big Way as Blue Wave Sees Red

Before last night, polls, betting odds, talking heads, prediction experts, and your Aunt Mabel all agreed Biden would be the next president.  Financial markets were leaning that direction too (with higher bond yields).  While Biden could certainly still win, a likely victory has turned into a nail-biter.  Moreover, the Senate is unlikely to flip (which was an even bigger risk for bonds).  As such, the only confirmed maritime metaphor for today is the green wave in bonds.

Biggest candlestick since March, as expected:

Uptrend still intact, but bond bulls are knocking on the floor:

Today's key event is quite simply election watching.  Michigan is in focus.  It's the tightest race, and assuming Biden has NV, AZ, and WI, Michigan makes 270 electoral votes.  It's not clear what the bond market's reaction function would be at the moment, but the absence of a clear democratic flip of the Senate is probably helping.  Also, we could simply have traders coming back into the market after having gone to the sidelines late last week.  Either way,  blue wave + red wave = green wave for bonds.