MBS Live Day Ahead: Bond Weakness At a Tipping Point, Waiting on Election

Here we are at last on the final trading day before the bond market receives what could be its biggest of actionable information since the initial surge in pandemic effects in March.  Speaking of March, that's how far we have to look back to build a case for .88% as a pivot point in 10yr yields and that's the level being tested this morning.  Most of the big kids around the bond market campfire think the recent rise in yields is meant to price in Biden victory and democratic flip of the senate.  Since that scenario is far from a given, if the campfire is right, it means .88% would be the least of our concerns if the blue sweep becomes a reality.  There are no significant econ reports on tap today, thus leaving markets to freak out in preparation for election night.