Staggering MBS Outperformance Easing Negative Momentum Pain

Bonds are in the throws of an extended negative momentum move that's been in place throughout October.  At times, stimulus-related headlines have accounted for volatility during this move.  Today was one of the handful of weaker days for Treasuries, yet MBS are down only 1 tick heading into the end of the day.  They've been doing this a lot lately, and it makes it even easier for lenders to avoid raising rates nearly as quickly as the broader bond market suggests.

Econ Data / Events

  • 20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying 10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th)

  • Jobless Claims 787k vs 860k f'cast, 842k prev

  • Existing Home Sales 6.54m vs 6.3m f'cast, 5.98m prev

Market Movement Recap
08:30 AM

Bonds opened slightly stronger in Asia and remained almost perfectly flat throughout the overnight session.  There was a brief moment of selling pressure just now following the stronger-than-expected Jobless Claims data.  But 10yr yields are staying in their overnight range, down 1.5bps at .806%.  MBS are up 1 tick (+0.03).

09:36 AM

Losing ground now, somewhat abruptly relative to the overnight calm.  Weakness follows headlines quoting Pelosi saying stimulus could be passed before election and that talks with Trump are on a good path.  Treasuries turned negative and are 2bps higher vs 830am.  MBS are also in the red, down 2 ticks (0.06) at 102-30 (102.94).

02:06 PM

MBS have bounced back nicely, ONCE AGAIN outperforming Treasuries which are still near their weaker levels of the day.  Stimulus headlines at 10:45am (read more) were the culprit.  10yr is up just over 2bps.  MBS are down only 1 tick (0.03).