Bonds Start Strong But MBS Struggle to Keep Up

Last week was clearly a defensive shift for the bond market.  Yields asymptotically approached 0.79% but managed to find support at that technical ceiling.  As the new week gets underway, it looks like Traders may have just been waiting to buy at that supportive ceiling until after the 3-day weekend.  Both Treasuries and MBS were noticeably stronger to start, but there's more ground to (re)cover if we want to get back in the previous range (sub 0.72% 10yr yield).  Moreover, MBS didn't have as good of a day as Treasuries, partly due to the supply situation (discussed in video and the alert) and partly as payback for previous outperformance.

Econ Data / Events
Market Movement Recap
08:38 AM

Treasuries opened flat in Asia and improved in lock-step with European bonds during European hours. European bonds rallied on a strong German Bund auction and general safe haven buying as the continent's covid numbers are flaring up again.  US 10yr yields are inching back into their recent .62-.72 range, currently at .7156%.  UMBS are up 2 ticks (0.06) at 103-04 (103.125).

11:48 AM

Bonds improving and stocks falling on stimulus headlines (Mnuchin saying it's hard to get something done before the election).  10yr at lows of day, down almost 2bps at .712.  2.0 UMBS up almost 3 ticks (0.09) now at 103-05 (103.16).  

03:08 PM

Bond gains have continued, or rather, MBS gains have continued.  Treasuries have actually lost ground in the PM trading hours.  This is a bit of a reversal from yesterday when Treasuries gained while MBS lost ground.  Like yesterday, however, the divergent performance began right after the Fed's scheduled MBS purchases in UMBS 30yr.