Bonds Confirm The Breakout, But There Are 2 Ways to Play It

Today offers firm confirmation of the range breakout we'd been hoping to see this week.  These sorts of breakouts are positive signals in the bigger picture, but risk-averse rate watchers can use them as early warning signs for short-term shifts.  Today's video discusses this in greater detail.

Econ Data / Events
Market Movement Recap
08:16 AM

Bonds were modestly weaker overnight, but domestic buyers got an early start around 6:30am.  With another slight boost from weak ADP data, Treasuries just turned positive and MBS are effectively unchanged.

11:03 AM

Gains extending a bit now, with more friendly Fed-speak, this time from Williams.  10yr yields down 1.6bps on the day to .66% and 2.0 UMBS up 2 ticks (0.06) at 103-11 (103.34).

01:28 PM

Comments from Fed speakers have generally been supportive.  Bonds hit their best levels just before noon and have pulled back a bit since then.  The bounce coincides with stock market strength.  10yr yields still down 2.3bps on the day at .649.  UMBS 2.0 still up 2 ticks (0.06) at 103-11 (103.34).