MBS Live Day Ahead: Q2 GDP Finally Arrives as Bonds Make Case For a Breakout

Cases are made all the time.  Some of them are surefire victories from the start.  Others lack the evidence required for a compelling conclusion.  The bond market makes both kinds of cases and everything in between.  Yesterday's version was definitely noticeable, but it remains to be seen how compelling the conclusion might be.  The case in question is the one for 10yr yields breaking (and staying) below 0.58 (technically 0.577) and holding the breakout for more than one day--something they've never done.  

Even if 10s can close under .58 today, it would really only be "day 1 of 2" because yesterday's break occurred after the 3pm close, and even in after hours trading, yields ultimately returned above .58 by the 5pm cut-off. That said, .58 ultimately acted like a ceiling overnight, which is what pivot points tend to do when they prove themselves to be relevant.

If things stay strong today, this continues to look like a pivot point breakout.  But if bonds lose ground and end up at .58 or above, this will look like just another day bouncing along the same old floor.

It will be interesting to see if there's any major reaction to the first release of Q2 GDP, which will be released by the time most of you read this (8:30am ET).   The market already knows to expect a big bad number.