The Trend is Officially Broken. Welcome Back To The Range

Bond yields moved lower today, thus breaking out of the prevailing trend.  In so doing, they find themselves squarely back inside a longer-standing sideways range, which is a great place to be with rates at all-time lows. 

Econ Data / Events

  • 11:30-11:50 AM (ET) - Fed 30yr UMBS Buying  

  • Core PCE Inflation (y/y) 1.0 vs 0.9 f'cast (1.0 prev)

  • Consumer Sentiment: 78.1 vs 79.0 f'cast (78.9 prev)

Market Movement Recap
07:35 AM

Stocks faltered a bit and recovered to 'unchanged' by 7am.  Bonds have been sideways to a hair stronger overnight.  MBS aren't liquid yet, but the first few quotes are unchanged from yesterday's close.

10:05 AM

UMBS 2.0 coupons up an eighth of a point and trading at the highs of the day. Stocks are off nearly 1% on the day now. 10yr yields are dancing right around that 0.66% level.

10:42 AM

Stocks lost enough ground to inspire more bond buying.  With S&P futures off nearly 2%, 10yr yields are down nearly 4bps to .645%.  2.0 UMBS are still up only an eighth of a point.

03:44 PM

Winding down now.  Stock sell-off got bigger and helped prevent a bigger correction in bonds.  Bonds tried to correct after 10yr yields hit .632, but are only up to .641 currently.  UMBS 2.0 is down to 102.25 after being as high as 102.31.