Lot's Of Confusion About Mortgage Rates This Week. Here's What's Up

By: Matthew Graham •

Mortgage rates remain at or near all time lows, but they haven't moved much since hitting them earlier this week--at least on average.  In fact, the average lender INCREASED rates just slightly today--a turn of events that's fairly mind-boggling for those that understand the connection between mortgage rates and the bond market.  To get the best sense of what's going on here, I'm going to point you toward the following newsletter, which lays things out as thoroughly and succinctly as possible:  https://housingbrief.com/article/5e62e220f40efc075062a21f/4fe094c7507eae194022246e  

Loan Originator Perspective

It's getting utterly crazy in mortgage world, hearing about lenders requiring 100 day locks, some no longer accepting new loans, etc.  Day to day pricing is now more capacity related than tied to MBS prices or bond yields.  If you can grab a rate very near the lowest in history, why risk missing out?  I am locking everything I can, regardless of closing date. -Ted Rood, Senior Originator 

 See Rates from Lenders in Your Area

Today's Most Prevalent Rates For Top Tier Scenarios 

  • 30YR FIXED - 3.0-3.25%
  • FHA/VA -2.75-3.00%
  • 15 YEAR FIXED - 2.75-2.875% 
  • 7 YEAR ARMS -  2.75% -3.00%


Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations 

  • 2019 was the best year for mortgage rates since 2011.  Big, long-lasting improvements such as this one are increasingly susceptible to bounces/corrections, but 2020's coronavirus outbreak has provided a second wind for low-rate momentum, quickly bringing rates into all-time low territory

  • Fed policy, trade negotiations, and the 2020 presidential election will all play a part in driving rate momentum as the year progresses.

  • The Fed and the bond market (which dictates rates) will be watching economic data closely, both at home and abroad to see just how much of an impact coronavirus will have.  Once it looks like that impact is waning, we could see sharp upward pressure in rates (unless another rate-friendly variable steals the show), but that would require a similar bounce in the economic data that has already begun to suffer due to coronavirus. 
  • Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders.  The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable.  Rates appearing on this page are "effective rates" that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.