Rate Volatility Levels Off Ahead of Jobs Report

By: Matthew Graham •

Mortgage rates managed to hold steady, for the most part, today.  Some lenders were offering slightly better or worse terms compared to yesterday, but none of the changes were very big.  This is a welcome development considering the past 2 days saw a rapid increase of 0.125% for the average lender.  Sadly, it's not necessarily a guarantee that we're out of the woods with respect to additional increases.

While there's no way to predict the future when it comes to financial markets, it is safe to say that rates will face more upward pressure to whatever extent the coronavirus panic dies down.  Indeed, that's been at the heart of the past 2 days of rising rates, and before that the burgeoning panic was the primary reason for rates dropping to multi-year lows.

Of course coronavirus isn't the only consideration for markets and rates, even if it's been in the spotlight recently.  Things like tomorrow morning's jobs report will always have the power to cause a reaction--especially for rates.  Additionally, jobs report day is often used as target time for traders to make bigger trades regardless of the outcome.  The bottom line is that today's lack of movement is no guarantee that things will stay calm.  If anything, we should expect volatility to increase heading into next week. 

 See Rates from Lenders in Your Area


Loan Originator Perspective

Treasury yields are near significant support levels, and if those levels are breached, all our recent gains may vanish.  The trend is NOT our friend, I am locking applications closing within 45 days. - Ted Rood, Senior Originator


Today's Most Prevalent Rates For Top Tier Scenarios 

  • 30YR FIXED - 3.5%
  • FHA/VA - 3.25%
  • 15 YEAR FIXED - 3.25-3.375% 
  • 5 YEAR ARMS -  3.25-3.75% depending on the lender


Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations 

  • 2019 was the best year for mortgage rates since 2011.  Big, long-lasting improvements such as this one are increasingly susceptible to bounces/corrections 

  • Fed policy and the US/China trade war have been key players (and more recently, the coronavirus outbreak).  Major updates on either front could cause a volatile reaction in rates.  

  • The Fed and the bond market (which dictates rates) will be watching economic data closely, both at home and abroad, as well as updates on other factors like trade and viral epidemics. The stronger the data the more rates could rise, while weaker data will lead to new long-term lows.  
  • Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders.  The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable.  Rates appearing on this page are "effective rates" that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.