MBS Live Recap: Bigger-Picture Concerns Back to Forefront After ISM

Heading into last week's Fed announcement and economic data, the analysis was starting to get a bit gloomy.  It wasn't the first time I talked about the size and scope of 2019's rally increasingly suggesting its demise, but like the rate spike in mid September, it was one of the more serious occasions.  

Now, 3 short days after yields seemed to be stampeding back toward all-time lows, here we are again at the same troublesome levels that prompted the doom and gloom 2 weeks ago.  I could say something to the effect of "things are more serious this time," and I could make a pretty compelling case for that.  It would likely draw on the trade deal progress and the resilience in a few key pieces of recent economic data.  

But instead, I'll say, things are AS SERIOUS now as they were last Monday.  Where they go from here will actually be very simple and logical.  Rates are going to move according to their baseline programming.  They're going to follow economic data!  

Today's ISM Non-Manufacturing reaction was a classic example and a true testament to the bond markets intense focus on the data.  Bottom line: if it looks like the data is moving away from levels that would confirm all of this summer's economic bearishness, rates are likely to keep moving away from those long-term lows.