MBS Live Recap: Rates Keep Falling Because You Thought They'd Bounce

To be fair, after rates fall as much as they fell yesterday (let's specify: the rates implied by bond markets, not necessarily actual mortgage rates), almost everyone is worried about a bounce.  Traders were already shifting their bets toward higher rates even before Wednesday's Fed announcement.  The imbalance of short positions paved the way for a mild short squeeze on Thursday morning and a massive one in the afternoon following Trump's tariff tweets.

After yesterday's massive move, traders again figured "surely, that must be it."  And that's a good thing!  As long as a big enough contingent of traders continues to bet on rates bouncing, they will provide someone to trade with for the deeper pockets who continue to push rates lower.  Paradoxical to some extent, yes...

Of course that's not the only market mover in play.  We really are trading the realities of an ongoing trade war and the probably reaction it will inspire from the Fed.  Arguably, today's big gains in 10yr yields were simply the bond market's way of leveling off after yesterday's tariff-inspired move.  In yesterday's context, today really wasn't that big.

One thing the market DIDN'T trade today was the jobs report.  This could have to do with the fact that the labor market is the most boring potential market mover until it does something interesting.  Or it could be due to the fact that it came in right on the screws.  Probably a bit of both!  either way, bonds stayed sideways to slightly stronger throughout the session and ultimately closed the day out at the lowest closing yields since BEFORE Trump took office.