Rates Look Like They're Planning a Bigger Move

By: Matthew Graham •

Mortgage rates barely budged today after hitting the highest levels in more than a week yesterday.  In general, the bond market (which dictates rate movements) looks to be leveling off ahead of tomorrow's important jobs report.  And that provides a useful clue about potential volatility ahead.

It's not uncommon for the Employment Situation (the official name of the jobs report) to have the biggest impact on interest rates on any given month compared to the other regularly scheduled economic reports.  Like most economic data, if the results are stronger than expected, the implication is for higher rates and vice versa. 

This time around, rates have positioned themselves very close to the borderline between 2019's prevailing range and the recently lower range that began in late March.  As rates move into and out of separate ranges, there tends to be more momentum on the initial shift.  This suggests rates aren't merely in a position to move quickly higher or lower... they're planning on it!

 See Rates from Lenders in Your Area


Loan Originator Perspective

Bond markets posted minimal gains as Friday's NFP report loomed today.  It's nice to see rates regain their footing, but it's still WAY too soon to let our guards down.   I'm locking loans closing within 45 days, unless clients yearn for excitement.   -Ted Rood, Senior Originator


Today's Most Prevalent Rates

  • 30YR FIXED - 4.125-4.375%
  • FHA/VA - 4.0%
  • 15 YEAR FIXED - 3.875-4.00% 
  • 5 YEAR ARMS -  3.875-4.25% depending on the lender


Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations 

  • Early 2019 saw a rapid reevaluation of big-picture trends in rates and in markets in general

  • The Federal Reserve has been a key player, and while they aren't the ones pulling the global economic strings, their response to the economy has helped rates fall more quickly than they otherwise might.

  • Based on the Fed's laundry list of concerns, their current outlook for rate hikes and economic growth, and their bond-buying policy shifts, we've all but certainly seen the highest rates of this economic cycle in late 2018.  
  • Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders.  The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable.  Rates appearing on this page are "effective rates" that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.