MBS Live Day Ahead: Range Breakout Quickly Getting Serious

The long-standing consolidation range in 10yr Treasury yields finally came under serious attack yesterday, with a big breakout to the upside.  Any time these sorts of trendlines are broken--and especially if that break occurs on the last day of any given month (or just before a key event)--we like to see at least one more day of "confirmation" where yields avoid backtracking toward the previous range.

Unfortunately, there doesn't seem to be any risk of backtracking today as yields continue to push higher out of the gate.  Barring a miraculous recovery, this will offer firm confirmation of the range breakout.  Moreover, the next ceiling is already under attack.  With the break of the consolidation range, we move on to consider the broader sideways range with various horizontal lines.  The nearest ceiling is at 2.75%, and we're already painfully close.

Today's biggest ticket in terms of economic data will be the 10am ISM Manufacturing PMI.  Consumer Sentiment can play a supporting role if it happens to suggest the same momentum (also at 10am ET).