MBS Live Recap: The Range May Be Breaking...

The range may be breaking!  Well, one of the ranges we've been tracking may be breaking, as long as tomorrow sees bond markets hold the gains they saw today.  Unfortunately, if that happens, it won't really mean that much--at least not yet.  

The range in question is the one marked by converging lines that rest along the higher lows and lower highs in 10yr Treasury yields (and many other sections of the bond market) over the past 2.5 months.  This consolidation range was never going to make it past February considering the lines would have converged before than.  Once it was inevitably broken, the best it could have offered us was a preview of the next horizontal level to be tested. 

In the current case, the diagonal line is breaking right about that same time that yields are already arriving at the implied horizontal line (2.62).

In other words, the best thing we could say about today's strength is that it's "nice."  It doesn't really carry much of a connotation for the broader sideways range.  

Tomorrow brings the minutes from the most recent Fed meeting.  That was the one where the Fed was surprisingly dovish/friendly.  The Minutes may offer clues as to why they were so dovish.  That doesn't strike me as a market moving phenomenon unless we find out the Fed is/was even more concerned about global economic developments than they let on.