Higher Rates Reinvigorate the ARM Loan Share

It is still a tiny share, but Ellie Mae says, in its November Origination Insight Report that the percentage of adjustable rate mortgages (ARMS) originated in November was the highest since the company first tracked the data in 2011, 8.9 percent. Not surprisingly the increase in ARMs is directly correlated to the average 30-year rate, which jumped to 5.15 percent in November from 5.01 percent in October.  The FHA rate climbed even higher, from 5.05 percent to 5.19 percent while conventional rates increased 14 basis points to 5.17 percent and VA rates rose from 4.83 to 4.99.

"As interest rates continue to rise, we are seeing the percentage of Adjustable Rate Mortgages rise in lockstep, and this month they've risen to the highest percentage we've seen since we began tracking data," said Jonathan Corr, president and CEO of Ellie Mae. "As expected, we are also continuing to see the percentage of refinances remain low-30 percent in November-due to higher interest rates."

The distribution of loans remained unchanged from October and essentially as they have been for months.  Sixty-five percent of originations were conventional loans, 19 percent FHA, and 10 percent VA.

The time to close all loans increased from 45 days in October to 46 days, due entirely to a two-day increase, to 48 days, in the timeline for purchase loans while refinances took 43 days, unchanged from October. The closing rate declined for all loans from 72.2 percent to 70.1 percent.  There was a lower pull-through rate than the prior month for both refis and purchases and across all loan types.  Ellie Mae calculates closing rates from applications initiated 90 days earlier, in this case the August 2018 batch.

The overall FICO score remained at 727 for the third month. The average LTV held at 79 for the fourth month, and DTI held at 26/39 for the second month.

The Origination Insight Report mines data from a large sample of approximately 80 percent of all mortgage applications that were initiated on Ellie Mae's mortgage management software.  Ellie Mae says its data is a proxy for the underwriting standards employed by lenders across the country.