MBS Live Day Ahead: 2 Ways Bonds Are Preparing For The Next Big Move

Bonds have either trying to position themselves in a relatively defensive, pessimistic stance heading into upcoming key events, or their staging on the edge of some important technical levels and daring those events to push them into weaker territory. Don't worry about trying to understand that sentence until we take a look at charts.

The notion of "staging on the edge of important technical levels" has to do with the consolidation created by the collision of September's decisive uptrend in rates with October's corrective downtrend.  In other words, we're talking about the diagonal lines in the following chart.  Yields have bounced on the ceiling several times.  They'll need to find a reason to rally today if they're to avoid breaking above it.

Now let's take a look at the "positioning in a relatively defensive, pessimistic stance."  This refers to the movement seen in the following chart where 10yr yields were the first to move back up to their previously indecisive consolidation range from early October.  It's as if bonds said to stocks "well! if you're not going to give me any more reasons to rally, I'm gonna go back up here, and I might go even higher, with or without you!"

As far as data and events that might help bonds make up their mind, tomorrow's NFP is a bigger deal than today's ISM.  Even then, it wouldn't be a surprise to see any brisk move in stocks supersede the implied impact from economic data.  Unfortunately, bonds have recently looked more and more willing to ignore all but the biggest moves.  Simply put, unless stocks swoop back down to challenge their late October lows, bonds might not care much.