MBS Live Recap: No Love For Bonds at Month-End

Bonds ended the day in weaker territory with 10yr yields rising roughly 3bps and Fannie 4.0 MBS losing nearly a quarter of a point.

Much like yesterday, bonds lost most of their ground in the overnight session.  Much like yesterday, an absence of drama in equities markets gave way to bond losses.  Taken together with the last 4 trading sessions, bonds look as though they're bouncing at 10yr yield levels near 3.06.  In that sense, today's modest weakness offers another bit of confirmation for that bounce.  The counterpoint is that yields seemed similarly unwilling to break up above 3.16% today.  

The general unwillingness to extend a rally or to spike to higher yields is consistent with indecision.  Perhaps bonds are waiting for input from the upcoming economic data or from next week's election results.  The other possibility is that traders' hands were simply tied due to month-end trading requirements (i.e. certain traders have to hold a certain mix of bonds by the end of the day/month).  In that case, we could see more abrupt movement in the morning , even if we don't get a surprise in the econ data.  

Even then, with NFP Friday and elections next week, it would be more of a surprise to see bonds move outside recent highs/lows quite that soon.