MBS Live Recap: Super Sideways and Slightly Weaker

Bonds were stuck between a rock and a hard place today.  Actually they were stuck between stocks and a European place.  Stocks made a case for a bond rally (not that stocks are in total control of bonds, but all other things being equal, stocks' intraday momentum is frequently seen accompanying bond rallies).  European markets pushed in the other direction with German Bund yields rising 3 times as fast as US 10yr yields.

The net effect was moderate weakness, mostly early in the day.  That stands to reason as Europe is closed during the 2nd half of our domestic trading day (therefore not around to keep adding is influence).

In the bigger picture, the weakness wasn't a big deal.  We're effectively sideways at 7-year highs in rates.  That's been the case for most of the month.  Stocks have been sideways and consolidating since their big sell-off on the 10th, and it seems that we're waiting to see if they make a big move back toward previous highs.  If they do, it won't necessarily mean anything for bonds, but we'd learn a lot more about bonds' willingness to test out higher rates (and conversely, their likelihood to test out a bit of a bounce back toward lower rates... or at least "less high" rates).