MBS Live Day Ahead: The Readiness is All

At this point, there's nothing left to be said or done in preparation for today's NFP data.  Bonds stand on the edge of the most recent abyss.  This time it's 3.20-3.24%-ish.  The specific level really doesn't matter (sorry Gundlach).  It's just another visit to long-term highs that will either become a ceiling for some indeterminate time frame or it will serve as a temporary staging area for an even more brutal move higher.

Is there a chance that we've overhyped today's potential impacts?  Yes and no.  It's true that the range of potential outcomes is big enough to deserve hype.  But as we've seen so many times, "potential" is often wasted.  Big impacts are often delayed.  Traders may keep something in reserve for next week's CPI data.

In general though, I would say it makes sense to be ready for anything in the next 10 minutes and the next 10 days.  There are several instances where bond markets have been forced to rapidly price-in a new reality, or the realization of a fundamental shift suggested by data/events.  If today's data is strong enough (especially wages), it would contribute to what can already be described as a rapid pricing-in of a new reality.

Apart from yesterday's highs just under 3.25%, there are really no great overhead support levels that would amount to anything beyond random guesses.  In that sense, if we break above 3.25%, we'll only know the next ceiling with the benefit of hindsight.  If we're rallying, there are all kinds of technical levels to consider, but certainly the best case scenario would be a move back below 3.125%.  That's an INCREDIBLY tall order for today.  It would be good enough to simply get back below yesterday's lows of 3.176%.  Technical levels really don't matter much though.  If we're not rallying in a big way today, it speaks to that notion of pricing in new realities.  It would be more of a confirmation of that unpleasant phenomenon.