MBS Live Day Ahead: Bonds Gearing Up For Unfriendly Fed

It would be a tad dramatic to say that rates are at a crossroads as we head into the end of September, unless there's any additional weakness this week.  That's because any additional weakness will bring yields closer to breaking 2018's previous high of 3.128% set on May 18th, 2018. 

When rates break a long-term high, there's always a risk that the previous ceiling will act as technical line in the sand.  The natural fear would be for such a breakout to prompt additional momentum toward even higher rates. That's always a possibility, but it's one of two.

The other possibility--in the event of additional weakness this week, of course--is that yields would simply be stretching the boundaries of existing ranges or perhaps just extending an upwardly-sloped trend.  In he case of that trend, we'd view May's high yields as a failed breakout attempt, and would still be close to longer-term ceilings.

Either way, the sunnier side of the potential outcome spectrum would be for a break of the ceiling to act as a trigger for buyers.  Whether or not that happens may be up to the Fed.  This week's key event is the FOMC meeting that ends on Wednesday afternoon. At that time, we'll get a new Fed announcement with a 100% guaranteed rate hike. 

We'll also get updated Fed forecasts which offer an important chance for market participants to line up the Fed's actual rate hike expectations with what could be described as more hawkish individual speeches of late.  If there's not a noticeable acceleration in the rate hike outlook, that could build a case for a ceiling bounce on one of the upper lines in the charts above.