MBS Live Recap: Not a Win, But At Least It's Not a Loss

After a series of demoralizing losses, it feels like some small victory for bonds to simply remain sideways today.  That wasn't necessarily a given early this morning.  In fact, yields hit new intraday highs for the week--the highest levels since May.  Move down the curve just a bit and 5yr yields are at the highest levels since 2008--just another victim of the relentless move toward higher short-term rates.

All that to say that the biggest risks to the long-term rate outlook have yet to subside.  Rather, today simply suggests we may finally be leveling off before making the next big decision--something that seems likely to follow next week's Fed Announcement and updated rate hike outlook.

As for specific market movers today, attempting to pin the tail on any particular donkey is a fool's errand.  Stocks surged, but the move was disconnected from rates.  Overseas markets were correlated at times, but not enough to suggest we give them credit as a key motivation. 

In general, it makes most sense to view the past few weeks as some combination of stronger economic data (starting with average hourly earnings in the NFP report), negatively-biased September trade flows, tons of corporate issuance, fear of more Treasury issuance associated with another tax bill, and potentially some ill effects from tax deadline retirement account funding.

From a technical standpoint, we'd need to see 10yr yields break below 3.06% tomorrow and hold those gains in order to confirm today's ceiling potential.