MBS Live Recap: New Tariff News Helps Bonds Dig Into Range

While we can't really avoid talking about "the range" recently (roughly 2.80 to 2.90 in terms of 10yr Treasury yields), we can at least talk about it in a slightly more enjoyable way today.

As of yesterday afternoon, yields were essentially challenging the upper end of the range.  Any weakness today would have meant a potential confirmation of a range breakout (which generally results in more momentum in the same direction).

The day started to go well for bonds right from the overnight session with modest global market weakness and risk aversion prompting similarly modest gains in safe-haven bond markets.  The PCE data helped too, albeit slightly.  Traders were fearing a stronger-than-expected result, so when inflation was reported right in line with expectations, bonds got another small boost.

The afternoon brought headlines about a new set of $200bln in tariffs on China that could be imposed as early as next Friday.  Stocks fell somewhat sharply and bonds saw their best gains of the day.  That said, it was only Treasuries that moved to their best levels.  MBS merely returned to the previous highs with Fannie 4.0 coupons gaining less than an eighth of a point.