MBS Live Recap: Bonds Hold Ground Despite Stronger Stocks

Right at 9:30am this morning, both stocks and bond yields began moving higher.  A modest overnight rally in Treasuries quickly came under fire and for a moment, we were effectively 'unchanged' on the day.  But bonds found their footing from there on out, even as stocks continued to move higher at their quickest pace of the week.

None of today's bond market movement is of major consequence in the bigger picture.  All of today's trading range in 10yr yields took place WELL inside yesterday's trading range.  The recent trend channel (parallel lines resting on the lows and highs of each day's bond yields/prices) toward higher yields remains intact without remotely approaching a breakout for better or worse.

Tomorrow's jobs report and ISM data may or may not speak loudly enough to change that.  In general though, as long as economic data continues suggesting a slowdown is at bay, there's no reason rates couldn't continue exploring the same territory seen in the Spring.  In other words, 3% won't necessarily prove to be a magical ceiling for 10yr yields.  It could prove to be where we bounce this time around, but that may well depend on tomorrow's data coming in weaker (or at least not coming in much stronger).