MBS Live Week Ahead: Incredibly Busy Week For Data and Events

This week is rare in terms of the combination of economic data, events, and other relevant goings-on.  If someone asked me to rattle off a few of the biggest market movers in terms of economic data and other scheduled events, my list would look something like this:

• Fed Announcements
• Fed Press Conferences
• NFP/Jobs Report
• Month-End
• ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing
• CPI (on-again, off-again)

With the exception of CPI, we get all of those bullet points this week!  About the only thing this week doesn't have going for it is the fact that July and August are typical consolidation months for bonds.  Case in point, 10yr yields have been sideways inside June's highs/lows and June was fairly sideways inside May's highs/lows. 

With the break of July's narrow range and the subsequent uptrend in rates (still intact.  See the yellow lines in the chart), the first opportunity for a technical breakout would be June's highs.  Those are labeled as "next major pivot point" in the chart (roughly 3.015).

As far as Fed announcements go, don't expect too terribly much from this Wednesday's iteration.  No one expects the Fed to pull the trigger on a hike at this meeting, and there's little reason for the Fed to change its forward guidance (or any other key policy details).  The best shot for a market-moving surprise would come from Powell's press conference following the announcement, but even that's more of an outside possibility than anything.

In terms of building an early sense of the Q3 economy, focus on the July reports on the economic calendar.  This week, those include the ISM data, ADP Employment, and NFP.