MBS Live Day Ahead: Quick Check on Ceilings as Bonds Weaken

If bond markets had a nice month-end buying spree at the end of June, it happened on the 27th.  The next two days saw moderate weakness.  Yesterday's July opener took the weakness to a slightly higher level.

While there's every possibility that yesterday's "new month" trading has already run its course (thus leaving bonds very light on inspiration until Thursday at the earliest), 3 successive days of weakness means it's a good idea for us to check in with nearby overhead ceilings.

2.885% has came up several times in June and now provides an early morning bounce today.  If bonds re-weaken and head higher, we'd be looking at 2.91 nearby, followed by 2.95%. Momentum metrics suggest a shift in short-term momentum, and a leveling-off in longer-term momentum.

Keep in mind that today is an early close in honor of Independence Day.  Volumes and liquidity will be dropping rapidly after European trading winds down (noon-ish).  That means any imbalances between buyers and sellers (i.e.positive or negative pressure on rates) could be amplified.  That said, "amplified" doesn't mean anything too crazy on a day like today.  It's more to say that bonds could make some moves even if it doesn't look like there's a fundamental reason to do so.