MBS Live Recap: Bonds Mostly Hold "Flash Rally" Gains

By: Matthew Graham

What a quiet and boring trading session it was!  Well, to be fair, there's still half an hour left as I type this, but most bond market participants mark the end of the day at 3pm E.T.  By that time, we were almost perfectly unchanged and hadn't seen a lick of volatility--quite impressive given yesterday's volatile "flash rally" move.

Those sorts of big, inexplicable rallies tend to result in rather immediate bounces back toward previous levels.  While one COULD make the case for that happening rather halfheartedly, I think the yields are still lower than most would have guessed at 2pm yesterday.  In other words, yes, we bounced, but we managed to hold on to a fair amount of yesterday's gains.

Still, all of that is a bit beside the point as the coming week brings several significant potential market movers.  Monday has the lowest potential volatility (at least from a calendar standpoint) as it merely brings 3yr and 10yr Treasury auctions.  Risk ramps up starting on Tuesday with the Consumer Price Index data followed by the Fed and ECB on Wednesday and Thursday respectively.