MBS Live Recap: Central Bankers and Corporate Issuance Not Helping

Bonds were weaker right from the start today as the overnight session saw several members of the European Central Bank comment on tapering prospects.  Granted, they're not calling it "tapering."  They're not even referring to any distinct event.  Rather, the discussion is about the general notion of "not buying bonds."  Whether they taper or quit cold turkey remains to be seen.  The important turning point will be when something about the current gameplan changes.  That's what today's speeches alluded to.

This is timely because next week brings the ECB announcement.  It was more of an issue today because two of the speakers referenced the market's expectations for the end of ECB bond buying. Moreover, both speakers went on to say that the market's expectations were well-founded.  In other words, it was a roundabout way of saying the bond buying program (and its mortality) is likely to be part of next week's discussion.

Even if that discussion doesn't result in any immediate changes (and it shouldn't, yet), it's not a topic that ECB President Mario Draghi has even been willing to discuss.  If that changes at next week's meeting, it's just another brick in the wall that separates financial markets from all that extra, guaranteed demand they've enjoyed.  All things being equal, that's not good for bonds.

I'll end by interviewing myself:

But wait!  Don't we already know the ECB is likely to end this thing in late 2018 or thereabouts? 

Indeed we do!

So why is this news

It's not news in the sense that we've learned something new.  Rather, it's news because the apparently concerted effort to brace markets for impact indicates that ECB officials might be concerned about delivering a message they think markets might not want to hear.  It's really just confirmation of a big gradual shift.  We all know it's coming eventually, but stuff like this just makes it more "real."  Or at least it makes it real sooner than some skeptics may have anticipated.