MBS Live Day Ahead: Rally's Resolve Already Tested; Mind The Gap

Today begins with yesterday's Italy-inspired mega rally under heavy fire.  Compared to last Friday's closing levels, roughly half of the overall gains remain intact.  That means the important "gap" created by yesterday's opening levels is still relevant (2.91-2.92 as seen in the chart below).  In fact, yields are still quite a bit lower than that, despite having risen enough in the overnight session to ruin the morning of those who chose to float yesterday afternoon.

But as we discussed yesterday, 2.91-2.92 (aka "the gap") is merely the base of operations in this new, higher stakes game for floaters.  If that's a game you've chosen to play, you'll likely find out a lot more about how it's shaping up over the next few hours.  

From a technical standpoint, although a move up to 2.91% would mean depressingly heavy losses on the day, it would nonetheless be a positive cue in the bigger picture.  

Domestic economic data is already out and has fallen on deaf ears.  Markets remain predominantly interested in the European situation and any additional correction in European trading levels.