MBS Live Day Ahead: Without Yesterday, Today would look Awful

Today is starting out with just a hint of green on the screens.  While that's certainly much better than the alternative (some historical examples see multiple days of yesterday's level of selling), it's still really far from great, and nowhere near the triumphant bounce back that would be in line with our highest hopes. 

Simply put, without yesterday, the yields at which we are starting the day would still be the worst in nearly 7 years.  We're not out of the woods, and we won't even begin to be able to entertain that notion without a break back below the previous highs of 3.04%.  From there, 2.95% remains an important line in the sand as far as suggesting a broader recovery.

Yields aside, technical indicators aren't incredibly supportive either.  Short-term momentum is just now hitting 'oversold' levels (the upper lines on the 2 stochastic graphs below).  Short-term momentum can easily remain oversold for weeks, as seen at the end of January.  Same story for long-term momentum, really (see the bottom pane of the chart).  Not only does it have some more room to run toward higher yields, but it too is capable of remaining there for extended periods of time.  

The more valuable use of these stochastic charts is to look for a drop back below oversold levels that coincides with other positive technical developments.  That's exactly what ALMOST happened in late April, but we were unable to get that "other" positive development in the form of a confirmed break below 2.95%.