MBS Live Recap: Forgettable

I'm going to write at you from an analytical standpoint for a moment.  Sorry, I just have to vent.  Today was completely forgettable.  In fact, the past 2 weeks have been pretty boring, with only a few exceptions.  It's not under-complicating things to simply leave you with the following chart and the message that anything that occurs inside the oval isn't worth discussing.

But as you know, I have a hard time leaving things at 1 paragraph.  So here's a 2nd for those who want the nuts and bolts (and simply to catalog the day).  Bonds began US hours unchanged and quickly lost a very small amount of ground after the 9:30 NYSE Open.  This suggests trading was thin and uninspired, thus leaving ETF-related tradeflows to have a visible impact on Treasury yields.  The 10am Consumer Sentiment data may have had a slightly negative effect due to the uptick in 1yr inflation expectations, but it could just as easily have been unrelated.  After all, the spike in yields after 10am didn't hit until 10:08am, thus making it a stretch to give credit to 10am data.

That's about it (oh my! Is this a 3rd paragraph?  I really didn't see this happening when I wrote the 1 word title).  Yields moved so little that it is of little use to analyze today's movement individually.  Bonds are either in the process of staging for another stab at long-term high yields or they're finally going to work up the courage to move below 2.95% in a meaningful way.  Nearly everyone thinks the former is a shoe-in, and because of the way markets work, that's exactly why the latter is still on the table.